ISP technical requirement #1: Automatic Updating
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The first technical requirement for a successful on-ramp
intermediary is the ability to keep customers continuously at the
cutting edge, without effort. Because such continuous updating
requires access to the user's hard disk, establishing trust and
confidence with the user will be a crucial business requirement. Who
will succeed? The major on-line services are already doing some level
of automatic updating (especially Prodigy) and have established some
level of trust and goodwill with their customers. However, they have
not been very nimble. Often their updated browsers are two to three
months behind what is needed to take full advantage of the newest
resources. AT&T's WorldNet will also have the advantage of a well-known and trusted brand name, and promises to ease the newbies in with
free browsers at sign up. If they can add to this a no-hands,
continuous upgrade policy, they could be very hard to beat. However,
AT&T's track record with the fast moving consumer end of the computer
industry does not inspire much confidence here. Finally, the ISPs
lack of history and brand recognition puts them at a considerable
disadvantage. To overcome it, they will need to outdo the other two
through speed and customized service.
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Improved bandwidth is its own enemy
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Serve 'em fast: In addition to demanding access to the latest toys,
the newer users will demand faster response times. Getting to the
multimedia pages, all stocked up with the fanciest browser apps, and
waiting, and waiting, and waiting, with nothing to show, can be very
frustrating. To some extent speed will come with greater bandwidth
(faster communication lines). But, improved bandwidth will also be
its own enemy. For the foreseeable future, it is reasonable to expect
that faster service will only cause more people to sign on. Further,
as content providers see bandwidth improvements, they will inevitably
start serving up ever more bandwidth intensive resources (more movies,
better sound quality, virtual worlds, and the like). Like
highways which continue to suffer traffic jams even as more and more
lanes are added, simply adding bandwidth will not be the answer. The
current Internet model where (virtually) every individual user must
make a separate, single trip to every content provider is simply too
wasteful of scarce resources (which will continue to remain scarce for
the foreseeable future).
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ISP technical requirement #2: Provide faster access through smart cachingCache space = shelf space
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The second technical requirement, therefore, is the ability to provide
faster access to on-line content despite chronic bandwidth problems.
Smart caching of content will be crucial (storing those pages which are
most likely to be asked for by the users on a local computer operated
by the intermediary). In this model, each on-ramp intermediary will act
as a wholesaler/retailer of information (rather than products), and the
scarce resource provided by the intermediary will be cache space (rather
than shelf space). However, because the Web is so large no single
entity can hope to archive it all. The crucial business skill required
of the intermediary will be to understand the kinds of sites
its users most like to visit so fully that it can almost perfectly anticipate
where they want to go next and provide it instantly from its local
cache. Further, they will need to establish close relations with the
content providers to ensure timely updating of content, and traffic
preparedness for special events.
For example, the day after AT&T
announced WorldNet it was virtually impossible to get to its site, even
at 1 a.m. EST! Cache servers, forewarned of the announcement, ready to
serve up the content locally, would have improved matters for all
parties. The current dissatisfaction expressed by many customers
regarding the speed and level of service provided by ISPs shows that
those who master both the technical and business skill will benefit
first through greater customer loyalty, and then from "commissions"
charged to content providers (much as manufacturers pay margins to
retailers for providing access to customers in the "real" world).
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