Java: One Year Out
by Bridget Regan (regab@ruby.ils.unc.edu)
Abstract
A hype-free analysis of the spread of Java through society. Using
innovation diffusion theory pioneered by Everett Rogers, Regan presents
the five key characteristics of successful innovations and measures how
Java stacks up. Based on an updated version of her Masters thesis for
Information Science, this article concludes that after one year Java has
met, and exceeded in some instances, the criteria for a successful and
lasting innovation.
Java's first year was a remarkable success. Since its release in May of 1995, a staggering number of Web sites, books, conferences, seminars, tutorials, media reports, and user groups devoted to the innovation have appeared. The industry's big players have embraced the technology either with anticipation or trepidation, but no one omits Java from future plans. Java is cited as the technology to revolutionize the computing industry as we know it.
A certain amount of zeal meets any innovation whose technology excites the imagination... remember ultrasonic dishwashers, or dehydrated food, or quadraphonic stereo, or videophones? No? These innovations also sparked excitement upon their debut, but have never captured the market or changed the world as was predicted. This study analyzes the events unfolding in Java's first year to see just where Java stood. Is Java poised for sparkling success or fizzling failure? Well, like I said, Java's first year was a remarkable success...
Contents
- Introduction
- Explains the motivation of the study.
- History & Overview
- Provides a glimpse of the community receiving the Java innovation.
- The Model
- Explains key components of the diffusion model used to examine Java.
- The Measurements
- Displays the statistics and documentation how they compare with a model of successful innovation.
- Conclusions
- Points to Java's ultimate direction.
- Bibliography
- Contains the references used in this study; the majority of which are on-line.
 
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